{"metadata":{"horizon_days":365,"model":"production","mode":"drawdown_regression","date_range":{"start":"1996-01-01","end":"2026-08-20"},"n_predictions":11190,"n_eval_predictions":1598,"generated_at":"2026-08-20T04:29:17.814710"},"metrics":{"pearson_r":0.938,"spearman_r":0.9198,"mae":0.02,"mae_ci":null,"median_ae":0.0096,"n_folds":1598,"mean_abs_drawdown":0.151,"rolling_3yr_spearman":0.8406,"rolling_3yr_n_folds":157,"rolling_3yr_start":"2023-08-11"},"current":{"predicted_drawdown":0.0579,"regime":"low_risk","regime_label":"Low Risk","date":"2026-08-20","uncertainty":64.7,"prediction_range_80":[0.0343,0.1409],"prediction_range_90":[0.026,0.1519],"ratio_percentile":8.9,"scenarios":[{"name":"Mild","description":"Normal noise","threshold":0.1119,"probability":0.755},{"name":"Correction","description":"Standard pullback","threshold":0.1934,"probability":0.233},{"name":"Significant","description":"Bear territory","threshold":0.2981,"probability":0.008},{"name":"Severe","description":"Crisis-level","threshold":null,"probability":0.003}],"input_completeness":{"missing_count":0,"missing_features":[],"total_features":73}},"reliability":{"bins":[{"pred":0.0595,"actual":0.0558,"n":160},{"pred":0.0739,"actual":0.0724,"n":160},{"pred":0.0856,"actual":0.0829,"n":160},{"pred":0.0992,"actual":0.0968,"n":159},{"pred":0.112,"actual":0.109,"n":159},{"pred":0.1312,"actual":0.1286,"n":161},{"pred":0.1595,"actual":0.1683,"n":159},{"pred":0.1878,"actual":0.1846,"n":160},{"pred":0.2335,"actual":0.2448,"n":149},{"pred":0.2939,"actual":0.3041,"n":91},{"pred":0.3623,"actual":0.3766,"n":48},{"pred":0.4863,"actual":0.4878,"n":32}],"n":1598,"horizon_days":365,"slope":1.0466,"intercept":-0.0059,"max_axis":0.5521},"thresholds":{"method":"empirical_percentile","horizon_days":365,"caution":{"percentile":50,"value":0.1119},"elevated":{"percentile":75,"value":0.1934},"crisis":{"percentile":90,"value":0.2981}},"scenario_thresholds":{"correction":11.2,"bear":19.3,"severe":29.8},"default_horizon":365,"chart":null,"horizons":null,"signals":null,"events":null,"chart_events":null,"analysis":null,"tier":"anonymous"}